GDP growth and currency valuation: The case of the dollar

One popular view on the strength of the US dollar around the turn of the century is that the higher growth in the US compared to Europe had stimulated foreigners to buy American assets, thereby driving up the exchange rate. In this paper a modified portfolio balance model is presented, in which it is shown that the impact of output growth on the exchange rate depends crucially on the origin of this growth. An improvement of the output gap is shown to actually depress the exchange rate whereas an increase in potential output growth leads to an appreciation, especially if this improvement is likely to be persistent. In an empirical example, it is shown that the equilibrium real dollar rate is indeed positively affected by high trend growth in the US, whereas it is negatively affected by a positive output gap. The model outperforms the random walk in forecasting future real dollar rates one to eight quarters ahead.     

Excel“高级筛选”功能之条件区域设计新解

通过对 Excel“高级筛选”功能的分析 ,提出了一种新的条件区域设计规则 :1 )筛选条件中涉及的字段名写在同一行 ;2 )条件值写在相应字段名下面 ,若字段间是“与”关系 ,条件值写在同一行 ;若字段间是“或”关系 ,条件值写在另一行 ;3 )条件区域设计好后应按行读 ,行与行之间是“或”关系。该规则简单易行 ,简化了高级筛选操作 ,扩展了 Excel的使用。     

住宅市场量价关系分析——基于香港数据的实证研究

本文基于滤波方法-9向量自回归模型，对香港十多年的住宅交易量和价格数据进行实证研究。结果显示，考察1996．1-1997．6区间的样本交易量与价格互为格兰杰因果关系，表现出正反馈效应，投机现象非常明显。但当选取1997．7-2007．7区间的样本则仅发现价格是交易量的格兰杰原因，并不存在双向因果关系。方差分解结果表明，交易量波动对于价格波动的影响要大于价格波动对于交易量的影响。     

A Closer Look at the Relation between GARCH and Stochastic Autoregressive Volatility

We show that, for three common SARV models, fitting a minimummean square linear filter is equivalent to fitting a GARCH model.This suggests that GARCH models may be useful for filtering,forecasting, and parameter estimation in stochastic volatilitysettings. To investigate, we use simulations to evaluate howthe three SARV models and their associated GARCH filters performunder controlled conditions and then we use daily currency andequity index returns to evaluate how the models perform in arisk management application. Although the GARCH models produceless precise forecasts than the SARV models in the simulations,it is not clear that the performance differences are large enoughto be economically meaningful. Consistent with this view, wefind that the GARCH and SARV models perform comparably in testsof conditional value-at-risk estimates using the actual data.     

注水过滤器滤芯主体质量可靠性试验与改进

结合采油现场实际，通过综合分析滤芯失效的表现形式，将滤芯材质、主体管壁厚度、过水孔密度作为影响滤芯主体现场使用寿命的三个可靠性主导影响因素，合理确定位极，科学设计试验方案；通过对过滤器滤芯主体的筛选试验，确定了经济合理、满足现场需要的滤芯主体。采用新型滤芯主体实现了在保持注水流量的同时，提高了滤芯的承压强度，可靠性增强。新型滤芯主体在正常工作压力环境中，使用时间平均为30天，是改进前的3倍。采用可拆洗式滤网结构,更换滤网方便快捷,减少了工人的劳动强度，可有效节约滤芯的成本投入,推广应用前景广阔。     

A system approach for measuring the euro area NAIRU

This paper addresses the issue of measuring the NAIRU for the euro area and assessing the robustness and precision of the obtained estimates. The empirical framework adopted is based on systems combining an Okun-type relationship between cyclical unemployment and the output gap with a Phillips curve and stochastic laws of motion for the NAIRU and potential output. Such systems have been estimated using Kalman-filter techniques. The results obtained point to an estimate of the area-wide NAIRU that is robust to changes in the underlying models. This robustness is shown to hold both in terms of the mean – i.e., the shape of the resulting NAIRU – and the variance of the process. The latter is derived through bootstrap exercises using the models alone or pooled together. The evidence found suggests that the increase in the aggregate NAIRU that took place in the early part of the sample period has come to a halt and may be about to be reversed.Jel classification: C11, C15, E31, E32The opinions expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Institutions they belong to. The authors are grateful to Per Jansson for providing parts of the econometric RATS code and to Gonzalo Camba-Mendez and Frank Smets of the ECB for useful comments. Comments and recommendations by two anonimous referees are also gratefully acnowledged. All the remaining errors are the authors responsibility. All correspondence to Ricardo Mestre.First version received: January 2002/Final version received December 2002     

码移键控系统的性能分析

讨论了码移键控(CSK)基本原理、基于数字匹配滤波器(DMF)的快速捕获结构和用相关乘法器代替数字匹配滤波器的快速捕获结构,并对CSK系统的接收性能进行数学分析,得到了数据码错误率公式。     

我国产业结构调整对外部财富的影响机制研究

为研究我国产业结构调整对外部财富的作用影响及其影响机制,本文从贸易传导渠道及金融传导渠道出发,建立理论模型,分析并阐述了双渠道传导下,产业结构调整影响外部财富的作用机理,同时运用时变参数状态空间模型进一步验证。研究结果表明,我国产业结构调整通过贸易传导渠道对外部财富起正向积累作用,并从金融传导渠道对外部财富进行负向削减,两者存在抵消效应。且我国第二产业产值比及第三、二产业产值比的扩大对外部财富存在区别影响。当下正处于全球产业链重构关键时期,本文期望从调整外部财富角度助力于我国产业结构的优化。     

一种新的分布式协作能量检测算法

针对集中式协作能量检测算法严重依赖中心节点的问题,提出了一种基于一致滤波器 的完全分布式的协作能量检测算法。该算法不需要中心节点,次用户可以通过与其邻居次用 户进行局域的数据交换,实现基于数据级融合的协作频谱感知。仿真结果表明,该算法比现 有的集中式协作能量检测算法优越,能够实现安全的频谱感知。     

不对称槽线及其在三维微波集成电路中的应用

介绍了不对称槽线的特性,分析了以不对称槽线构建的复合环、支线定向耦合器、平 衡功率分配器、多层滤波器、多信道功率分配器等组件的性能。这些组件体积小、重量轻、 频带宽、电压驻波系数小,并且大多数可应用于毫米波段,是三维微波集成电路中的重要组 成部分。研究表明不对称槽线具有优良的特性。